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Diagnosis and numerical simulation of the atmospheric boundary layer dynamics and the Arctic terrestrial ecosystems state under anthropogenic stress

Abstract

Global climate change plays a significant role in the evolution of ecosystems at high latitudes. At present, the Arctic is attracting increased attention not only as a region with the most noticeable climatic changes, but also as a world pantry of minerals, the perspective of development of which is actively discussed. A significant part of hydrocarbon production in Russia is already carried out beyond the Arctic circle, and over time more and more Northern deposits will be developed, which requires the creation of additional production and urban infrastructure. At the same time, Arctic ecosystems are characterized by extreme vulnerability to anthropogenic impacts and slowness of recovery processes in case of their disturbances. When diagnosing the impact of anthropogenic pressures on Arctic ecosystems, account must also be taken of the fact that the Arctic is characterized by extreme climatic conditions, including low air temperatures, strong winds, ice and snow cover for most of the year, as well as by permafrost. It should also be noted the focal nature of the industrial and economic development of the region, when the areas surrounding the concentration of anthropogenic activities are most affected. The main objective of this project is to develop methods for experimental determining and numerical modelling the extent and intensity of anthropogenic stress on Arctic ecosystems surrounding cities with varying degrees of industrial activity in polar conditions. With the use of multiscale modeling (high-resolution LES- and RANS-models of turbulent flows) the assessment of thermal regime and transport of impurities in the urban environment, calculation of the zones of accumulation of impurities in the city and the range of their removal beyond it in conditions of strong stable stratification characteristic of polar winter will be carried out. The influence of impurity deposition on the thermodynamic regime of the moss-covered/snow-covered tundra and on the hydro-chemical processes in thermokarst lakes, as well as the influence of Arctic cities on their microclimate and thermal regime of the surrounding areas will be investigated in specialized field experiments and using remote sensing data. Data of field experiments and numerical modelling will be used to develop new and improve existing parameterizations for global and regional models of the weather forecast and climate. Based on the principles of mechanics and thermodynamics of porous media, parametrization of heat and gas exchange processes inside the moss cover will be developed and tested using the data of field experiments. Parameterizations will also be proposed to calculate the dynamic and thermal roughness of different types of underlying surface, including urban environment. It is planned the incorporation of new parameterizations in the INM RAS-MSU land soil/vegetation cover model. As objects of research will be used Arctic cities Nadym and Norilsk, differing in the characteristics of the terrain and the degree of anthropogenic stress on surrounding areas.

Duration of the project: 2018 onwards

Project coordination & contact information

Project partners

Funding
In early 2018, the Government of Russian Federation adopted the state program "Socio-economic development of the Arctic zone belonging to Russian Federation for the period up to 2020 ". One of its major priorities is "improving the system of state management of socio-economic development including through spreading out fundamental and applied scientific research in the Arctic." In February 2018, Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR) issued a call for proposals on "Fundamental Problems in Exploration and Development of the Russian Arctic: Natural and Social Environment". The projects selected for financial support aim to assess what changes are expected in the arctic environments in view of the planned economic activities and ongoing natural processes; and what can be social consequences of these changes. Results from the assessment will provide scientific basis for environmentally and socially safe human activities in the Arctic. This project is one of the funded projects of this call.

Physical models of extreme marine weather events caused by climate change in the Arctic zone in the first half of the 21st century

Introduction
Climate change in the Arctic zone is closely related to episodes of unfavorable weather conditions, in particular an abnormally strong wind. On the one hand, extreme cyclones, which in winter invade the Arctic zone from the North Atlantic, increase the flow of heat and moisture to high latitudes, and cause a reduction in the ice cover. On the other hand, the decrease in the sea ice extent causes a change in the climatology of polar lows (PLs) or polar mesocyclones, intense atmospheric vortices formed during incursions of cold air from the central regions of the Arctic or from land in the ocean region free from ice. Reducing their number in the western sector of the Arctic due to changes in atmospheric circulation is accompanied by their appearance over the seas in the Eastern sector of the Arctic, which were previously covered with ice. For arctic storms, intense precipitation is typical, sharply reducing visibility, high waves and extreme storm loads, which pose a great threat to commercial and passenger navigation, as well as for oil production from offshore platforms. Similar episodes of unfavorable weather conditions due to their rapid development are poorly predicted by modern models.

Project aims
The project is aimed at the development and verification of physical models of marine extreme weather events in the Arctic zone, associated with climate change in the first half of the 21st century.

Expected project resultsAs a result of the project, a multilayered through-description of the properties of extreme weather phenomena in high latitudes at various scales will be proposed. In this case, the features and unknown properties of elementary physical phenomena in the boundary layers of the atmosphere and the ocean will be determined at low temperatures, including taking into account the complex dynamics associated with the formation of sea spray and foam during the surface wave breakings in strong winds, as well as the presence of precipitation and ice cover. New parametrizations of turbulent flows and roughness parameters for momentum, heat and moisture will be proposed taking into account the complex rheology due to multiphase and phase transitions (evaporation and condensation, crystallization and fusion). Specifics of surface waves in Arctic conditions under extreme wind will be revealed, it will be clarified how ice of different cohesion affects surface waves, and under what conditions waves can destroy ice. Based on the new models of turbulence closure and parametrization of turbulent flows, new tools will be created for approximating turbulence and the planetary boundary layer in numerical models of weather and climate forecasting. The parametrization of turbulent flows and the roughness of heat and momentum developed in the project will be applied to modeling atmospheric phenomena using mesoscale models of atmospheric circulation and to assess the climatic effects associated with extreme weather events in the Arctic zone.

The new fundamental results of the project are primarily related to the elucidation of the unknown physical properties of small-scale processes in low-temperature conditions responsible for the transport processes between the ocean and the atmosphere in strong winds. From an applied point of view, the expected results are aimed at improving the predictability of the Arctic climate and episodes of adverse weather, and therefore, to improve the safety of Arctic development.

Duration of the project: 2018 onwards

Project coordination & contact information

Project partners

Funding

In early 2018, the Government of Russian Federation adopted the state program "Socio-economic development of the Arctic zone belonging to Russian Federation for the period up to 2020 ". One of its major priorities is "improving the system of state management of socio-economic development including through spreading out fundamental and applied scientific research in the Arctic." In February 2018, Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR) issued a call for proposals on "Fundamental Problems in Exploration and Development of the Russian Arctic: Natural and Social Environment". The projects selected for financial support aim to assess what changes are expected in the arctic environments in view of the planned economic activities and ongoing natural processes; and what can be social consequences of these changes. Results from the assessment will provide scientific basis for environmentally and socially safe human activities in the Arctic. This project is one of the funded projects of this call.

 

Medical-geographical modeling of spatiotemporal changes in the spatial pattern of naturally-dependent and socially important diseases under the changing climate and economic development of the Russian Arctic

Scope

The objective of the project is medical-geographical modeling and projections of spatiotemporal changes in naturally-dependent and socially important diseases in the conditions of changing climate and economic development of the Russian Arctic.

Project aims

The project aims at solution of environmental problems related to environment-friendly, sustainable and economically efficient development of the Northern territories, aiming to advance the quality of life and population health in the Arctic. The modeling and spatiotemporal analysis are based on detailed medical-geographical database for the Arctic zone of Russia. Compilation of the complex information system includes accumulation, storage, processing and analysis of a large volume of statistical and literature data, as well as integration of available archived materials from state institutions, government agencies, scientific and commercial organizations engaged in supporting the population health.

Expected project results

Project results will provide scientific basis for environmentally and socially safe human activities in the Arctic. Actual medical-environmental situations will be evaluated; possible spatiotemporal changes in spatial patterns of particularly important and most dangerous diseases will be forecasted; recommendations towards prophylactic and health-improving activities in the Arctic will be elaborated and forwarded to the public-health authorities. The major scientific and practical results from the project will be new Arctichealth.ru information portal integrating complex information system of medical-environmental data and Web-GIS-based medical-geographical on-line atlas for the Arctic zone of Russia.

Duration of the project: 2018 onwards

Project coordination & contact information

Svetlana Malkhazova, MSU

Dmitry Orlov, MSU

Project partners

 

Pan-Eurasian EXperiment (PEEX) Modelling Platform research and development for online coupled integrated meteorology-chemistry-aerosols feedbacks and interactions in weather, climate and atmospheric composition multi-scale modelling (Enviro-PEEX on ECMWF, 2018–2020)

Introduction

As the societal impacts of hazardous/ unfavorable weather and other environmental pressures grow, the need for integrated predictions which can represent the numerous feedbacks and linkages between sub-systems of our environment is greater than ever. This has led to development of a new generation of high resolution coupled prediction tools to represent the two-way interactions between different components of the environment. For example a new generation of online integrated Atmospheric Chemical Transport (ACT) and Meteorology (Numerical Weather Prediction, NWP and Climate) models represent the interactions between different atmospheric processes including chemistry (both gases and aerosols), clouds, radiation, boundary layer, emissions, meteorology and climate. In parallel, coupled environmental prediction at km-scale which includes feedbacks between the atmosphere, land surface, coastal areas and oceans aim to better represent the interactions in the water cycle, to provide tools for improved natural hazard response or water management, for example. Global Earth system models simulate the atmosphere, cryosphere, biosphere, and oceans, allowing investigation of interactions and feedbacks within and between these different spheres, including how these affect climate and biogeochemistry on timescales of hours to millennia.

PEEX-Modelling-Platform (PEEX-MP) Research, Development and Application

The PEEX-MP (https://www.atm.helsinki.fi/peex/index.php/modelling-platform) presents a strategy for best use of current generation modeling tools to improve process understanding and improve predictability on different timescales within the PEEX domain, and also presents potential future developments. A number of application areas of new integrated modelling developments are expected to be considered, including: (i) improved numerical weather prediction and chemical weather forecasting with short-term feedbacks of aerosols and chemistry on meteorological variables; (ii) two-way interactions between atmospheric pollution/ composition and climate variability/ change; (iii) better prediction of atmosphere and/or ocean state through closer coupling between the component models to represent the two-way feedbacks and exchange of the atmospheric and ocean boundary layer properties; (iv) more complete/ detailed simulation of the hydrological cycle, through linking atmospheric, land surface, ecosystems, hydrological and ocean circulation models.

The PEEX-MP focuses on new generation of integrated models and is based on the seamless Earth System Modelling approach to evolve from separate model components to seamless meteorology-composition-environment models to address challenges in weather, climate and atmospheric composition fields whose interests, applications and challenges are now overlapping. Several models, being a part of the PEEX-MP, are to be further developed and tested in this HPC project.

The overall objectives will be to analyse the importance of the meteorology-chemistry-aerosols interactions and feedbacks and to provide a way for development of efficient techniques for on-line coupling of numerical weather prediction and atmospheric chemical transport via process-oriented parameterizations and feedback algorithms, which will improve the numerical weather prediction, climate and atmospheric composition forecasting.

If you are interested in to join the PEEX-MP-Working Group, please contact This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.,Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research, INAR/Physics, University of Helsinki

Expected project results

The main application areas of the on-line integrated modelling are expected to be considered:

  • (i) improved numerical weather prediction with short-term feedbacks of aerosols and chemistry on formation and development of meteorological variables;
  • (ii) improved atmospheric composition forecasting with on-line integrated meteorological forecast and two-way feedbacks between aerosols/chemistry and meteorology;
  • (iii) coupling of aerosols and chemistry in Earth System modelling, aiming towards more realistic description of aerosols and relevant microphysical processes, and their effect on radiative fluxes and clouds;
  • (iv) improved understanding and ability in prediction of chemical and physical processes related to the formation and growth of atmospheric particles.

The emphasis is primarily on the evaluation and testing of the online integrated Enviro-HIRLAM/ HARMONIE/ EC-Earth modelling systems and sensitivity analyses the feedback mechanisms for weather, climate and atmospheric composition modelling.

The simulations are expected for:

  • (i) short-term case studies with physical and chemical weather forecasting (downscaling from hemispheric-regional-subregional to urban/ city scales) in order to evaluate sensitivity of aerosol feedback effects on meteorology, atmospheric composition and climate;
  • (ii) episodes simulations for weather, climate and air quality applications to evaluate possible effects;
  • (iii) testing of parameterisations, meteorological and chemical initial and boundary conditions, and chemical data assimilation.

The computational resources will be used mainly to experiment with newly developed components of the modelling systems and evaluate their performance and sensitivity to feedbacks. In-depth validation and intensive testing of all of these developments will be carried out at UHEL, mentioned Universities and research institutions as well as ECMWF environments.

Project coordinator & contact information

  • PI – Alexander Mahura, Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research, INAR/ UHEL
  • e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
  • https://tuhat.helsinki.fi/portal/en/person/mahura
  • https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Alexander_Mahura

More details (extended introduction, models for research and development, scientific developments, overview of projects that benefits, partners of the project, workplan with main application areas and expected simulations, new developments towards PEEX-Modelling-Platform, etc.) are available in the “Enviro-PEEX on ECMWF HPC” proposal at:

Project partners 

  • UHEL – University of Helsinki, Finland;
  • UCPH – University of Copenhagen, Denmark;
  • FMI – Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland;
  • OSENU – Odessa State Environmental University, Ukraine;
  • ITU – Istanbul Technical University, Turkey;
  • UoLA – University of  L'Aquila, Italy;
  • RSHU – Russian State Hydrometeorological University, Russia;
  • UHMI – Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, Ukraine;
  • ICMMG  – Institute Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics, Russia;
  • KazNRTU – Kazakh National Research Technical University, Kazakhstan;
  • NIERSC – Nansen International Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre, Russia;
  • TShNUK – Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Ukraine;
  • MSU – Moscow State University, Russia

 

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